Wednesday, June 30, 2010

2010 Preview - A Pyrenean Adventure

The 2010 edition of the Tour de France kicks off on Saturday night (Australian time) with an 8km prologue in Rotterdam, Netherlands. This years tour coincides with the 100th anniversary of the introduction of the high mountains to the Tour, and as a result this years edition has a very Pyrenean feel to it. The riders will be completing the grand loop in a clockwise direction, starting in the Netherlands, moving through Belgium to France, then to the Alps followed by the Pyrenees. As a monument to the great climbs of the French-Spanish border a number of the regions famous mountains will be tackled this year including Ax-3 Domaines, the Portet-d'Aspet, the Peyresourde, the Col d'Aspin, the Aubisque, the Marie-Blanque, and the mythical Col du Tourmalet.....twice!


Yellow Jersey


As has been the case for many preceding editions, their is a hot favourite for the Yellow Jersey in Alberto Contador (1/2 F) and unlike last year I am not stupid enough to tip against him. The sad fact is that, barring a complete catastrophe, he should take his third title with ease in an edition packed full of climbs. The quinella is most likely to be a repeat of last year with Andy Schleck (10/1) my tip to finish second. He lacks the ability in the time trial to defeat Contador but his pure climbing ability will be more than enough to hold off the rest of the field. For third, I am going to outside the obvious (Lance!) and plump for the up and coming Dutchman Robert Gesink (50/1). Gesink has always been touted as a future tour winner and after crashing out in the first week last year he will be keen to make amends in 2010. For those looking for a massive outsider, why not try Samuel Sanchez (230/1). The Olympic road race champion has finished on the podium in the Vuelta before and was a credible 6th when he last contested the race in 2008.


Green Jersey


Personally I think Mark Cavendish (5/4 F) is a certainty to win this after controversially missing out last year. The man with the speed of an F1 car (and the personality of a petulant child) will be gunning for green after being nosed out by just 13 points in 2009. His main challenger is the up and coming American Tyler Farrar (6/1) who finally broke through for his first stage win in a grand tour at the Vuelta last year. He was close up in a number of sprints in the 2009 Tour and if Cav is having an off day he will be the man to beat. Two time Green Jersey winner Thor Hushovd (6/1) can also not be discounted. He uses his consistency to remain high up in the classification rather than amassing tons of victories a la Cav. He is a hardened veteran who knows how to accumulate points in this competition and will be there or thereabouts come Paris. Best of the outsiders is the triple World Champion and winner of the jersey in 2008, Oscar Freire (20/1).


Polka Dot Jersey


An absolute lottery of a classification and usually the domain of the dopers with the last two winners copping bans for doping and blood manipulation respectively. So the cynical amongst you might just like to back the person you think is most likely to be drugged up. The Mountains competition seems as open as I can ever remember this year so feel free to take your pick from Aussie Matthew Lloyd (30/1) who took the equivalent title in the Giro earlier this year. In a Tour packed with mountains we might see Alberto Contador (20/1) do the rare (these days) double of wearing both the yellow and polka dot jersey into Paris (hopefully he is not diagnosed with measles and hepatitis along the way). An I may be showing him too much love but Samuel Sanchez (60/1) must at least be a hope for this classification as well given his climbing ability. For a mega outsider, someone like Edvald Boasson Hagen (100/1) may be able to get into a break on an early mountain stage and garner enough points to hold on to the jersey all the way to Paris.


And a Falcon's preview of the Tour would not be complete with out a mention of the great man himself, the current road race CHAMPION OF THE WORLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Cadel Evans.Has any athlete in the history of the world ever provided us with so much joy, despair, hope, sadness, and sheer hilarity.





Cadel - listen mate - face it, just like Alejandro Valverde, you just don't have what it takes to win the Tour. You just don't have the patience or concentration for it. You always stuff up somewhere - a crash, a mountain stage, a poor time trial. Forget about the yellow Cadel and focus on stage victories. You are a classics rider! The World Championships, Fleche-Wallonne, you win in Stage 7 of the Giro this year - you are a frigging one day specialist for God's sake! So forget about the podium and focus on ripping the race apart on one or two days to get the Tour recognition your ability deserves.


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